MAINSTREAMING CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION IN AGRICULTURAL EXTENSION
SLIDE 9 - Climate with natural forcings
This is a very interesting graph. Natural forcings are simply the effects of natural things
on temperature eg solar cycles, volcanoes. So it is things that are not caused by man‟s
actions
The top line shows the actual (real) change in temperature (based on measurements
from all over the world) over the years
The bottom line shows the change in temperature calculated by the model if we take
out the effects of mans effects eg greenhouse gases. So the bottom line is the change
in temperature WITHOUT MAN‟S influence but WITH NATURAL EFFECTS (solar
cycle, volcanoes etc).
The graph clearly shows us that the increases in temperature in the world are due
man‟s influence and are not explained by natural effects
SLIDE 10 – Climate change with natural forcings and man-made emissions
This slide simply backs up the previous slide. It shows us how accurate the computer
model is. The top black line is the same as in the previous slide. It is the actual (real)
change in temperature over the years. The other line next to it is the computer model
calculation of what the temperature changes are over the years if you include BOTH
man made effects and natural effects together (which is what has actually
happened). The fact that the two lines are so close shows that the model is very
accurate in its calculations.
If people are not clear about the second graph they shouldn‟t worry. The first graph
shows the point that human activities (emissions of GHGs caused by man) explain
the real temperature changes that have been measured in the world.
SLIDE 11 – Climate change with natural forcings and man-made emissions
This slide shows us the same thing as the previous graphs. Many models have been
made and used to try and see what the effects of manmade emissions are on
temperature in comparison to the effects of natural causes. The graphs are the
results from different models run for different parts of the world.
A Training Manual on Use of Climate Information and Vulnerability and Capacity Assessment for
Agricultural Extension Staff in Zimbabwe
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